The statistical data and the design of the modern economy
Mr Sanjeev Kumar | July 09,2014 11:05 am IST
Our modern economic system is overload with all sorts of statistical data, all aimed at helping us better understand and interpret, the overall health and condition of the economy. And one of the top leading economic indicator to measure the health of an economy is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), used by central bankers around the world to adjust their monetary policies, by the governments to create economic policies and by the markets to make economic assessment in order to make investment decisions.
So how is our world doing ? well, based on the international comparison program ( ICP ) data for the year ending 2011, the PPP- based world GDP is over US$ 90 trillion. And around 32.4% of this GDP comes from the six Middle income countries including of China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico, while the six high income countries including of US, Japan, Germany, France, UK and Italy make up around 32.9% of this PPP-based world GDP. The average per capita income of Qatar, Macau, Luxembourg, Kuwait and Brunei of around US$ 100,000 is much higher than the six high income countries, and the US being the cheapest in terms of living cost among the high income countries. And EGYPT, Pakistan, Myanmar, Ethiopia and Lao rank among the cheapest economies in the world.
In terms of investment expenditure, China now has the largest share of the world’s expenditure for investment in other words gross fixed capital formation, and roughly 80% of Asia’s ( including the pacific region ) investment expenditure comes from China and India while Brazil makes up 61% of South America ‘s overall investment expenditure.
But for many, all this is might not only be quite boring statistical data but also somewhat irrelevant as they may not be able to relate to it or interpret it. On the other hand, many would find and consider these vital statistical data extremely important as it confirms ( their interpretation ) that our world is getting a bit richer than it was over a decade ago but then some may disagree especially those who are still struggling to keep their head above water after the financial crisis of 07/08, and would rightly argue that rich are getting richer and the income gap is expanding.
Whatever may be the case, these statistical data are nothing but a rough estimate prone to error. So far we have not managed to design an efficient economic reporting system that is able to account for all (100% ) of the economic activities of the world.
So whichever way, we decide to measure or calculate, how rich our nations economy or the world is getting, there will always be an element of misrepresentation of the actual fact. And I believe Simon Kuznets, who developed the idea of using GDP matrix to measure the size of a country’s economy knew about its limitation. This is why Kuznets extensively wrote about its use and abuse. And one of his statement in 1962 more or less sums up the issue. He said, ” Distinctions must be kept in mind between quantity and quality of growth, between costs and returns, and between the short and long run. Goals for more growth should specify more growth of what and for what “
Antarctica has trillions of dollars worth of natural resources but zero GDP because it is the people and their economic activities that is what a GDP calculation is tying to measure. So it is the people who make the economy as well as the GDP number, and without people, there is no economy so quite clearly, a economy should be built around people and not the other way round.
The economic literacy of the world population is extremely low, and people on the street today couldn’t be more connected to the financial world than ever before, as evident from the immediate after of the financial crisis. And increasingly more people are starting to talk and pay attention to economic issues that has already affected them directly or indirectly or may affect them going forward as consumers, investors, citizens and what not.
So the design of the modern economy should also incorporate providing basic and essential economic literacy to all the participants and users of the system. A higher rate of basic and essential economic literacy will help people around the world better understand the complex economic system. Economics and overall health of an economy affects people in different ways, and its influence on people’s life is ever increasing so there is strong case for the system to be upgraded, and designed around people, to make it work better.