Company Analysis: Bajaj Auto Ltd.
Key Earnings Drivers
Below are the key factors, which strongly affect the auto industry: -
Government policy impact on petrol prices: Petrol prices determine the running cost of two/three wheelers expressed in Rupees per kilometer.
Petrol prices are the highest in India as GOI subsidizes kerosene and diesel.
But with the recent change in GOI policy to reduce the subsidy, the prices of petrol will remain constant at the current prices. This will have a positive effect on purchases of two/three wheelers.
Improvement in disposable income: With the increase in salary levels, due to entry of multinationals following liberalization process and fifth pay commission, the disposable income has improved exponentially over the years. This will have multiplier effect on demand for consumer durables including two-wheelers.
Changes in prices of second-hand cars: The second hand car prices of small cars have come down sharply in the recent past. This will shift the demand from higher-end two-wheelers to cars and affect the demand for two-wheelers negatively. A further drop in second-hand car prices will lead to pressure on the two-wheeler majors who plan to release higher-end scooters and motorcycles.
Implementation of mass transport system: Many states have planned to implement mass transport systems in state capitals in the future. This will have negative impact on demand for two-wheelers in the long run. But taking into account the delays involved in implementation of such large infrastructure projects the demand to be affected only five to seven years down the line.
Availability of credit for vehicle purchase: The availability and cost of finance affects the demand for two- and three-wheelers as the trend for increased credit purchases for consumer durables have increased over the years. Therefore, any change with respect to any of these two parameters as a result of change in RBI policy has to be closely watched to assess the demand for two- and three-wheelers.
Internal Factors - Strengths & Weaknesses
Let's analyze the position of Bajaj in the current market set-up, evaluating its strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities available.
Highly experienced management.
Product design and development capabilities.
Extensive R & D focus.
Widespread distribution network.
High performance products across all categories.
High export to domestic sales ratio.
Great financial support network (For financing the automobile)
High economies of scale.
High economies of scope.
Hasn't employed the excess cash for long.
Still has no established brand to match Hero Honda's Splendor in commuter segment.
Not a global player in spite of huge volumes.
Not a globally recognizable brand (unlike the JV partner Kawasaki)
The competition catches-up any new innovation in no time.
Threat of cheap imported motorcycles from China.
Margins getting squeezed from both the directions (Price as well as Cost)
TATA Ace is a serious competition for the three-wheeler cargo segment.
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