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The Hiccups: The key problem facing this whole initiative is the adoption of a uniform technology standard across the industry. The pace at which new technology is being introduced, adapted, and implemented in the Interactive Television market is startling. However, this brings a host of disturbing questions… When TCI selects PersonalJava on Friday and Windows CE on Saturday for inclusion in their set-top boxes, what does it mean for the rest of the industry?
Also, as there are no proven business models for Interactive Television from either the standpoint of consumer electronics companies or cable/satellite operators; costs - particularly on the core enabling technologies - need to be kept down. For the near-term, cost will remain the number one barrier to acceptance on the part of companies, like cable operators, considering launching new interactive services.
The Foreign Market Scenario and Projections: As of today, less than one per cent of North American households are interactive TV subscribers, according to technology research company Forrester. But Gartner sees iTV in 17 million US homes by 2004 and about 2.5 million homes in the next 12 to 18 months. Gartner sees the industry generating about $11 billion in annual revenues in five years. Meanwhile, Forrester expects program guides, enhanced broadcasts and TV-based browsing to generate $11 billion of annual revenue in ads and $7 billion in commerce over the same period. As far as the penetration levels are concerned, Forrester estimates that 42% of US and 26% of European HHs will have iTV.
Microsoft's Ultimate TV service, which will be available on satellite operator DIRECTV later this year, offers live TV controls, Web access and 500 hours of interactive programming that lets viewers play along with game shows. Companies are also beginning to provide Web features over TV so viewers can access email, get information or respond to polls via their TVs rather than using their PCs for that purpose.
In the meantime, cable and satellite players are also sprucing up their act to offer Interactive TV services. Excite@Home Corp. is focusing on "broadband TV" to deliver entertainment, music and games through its high-speed data pipe and pacts with cable operators. DIRECTV recently launched a receiver with TiVo that uses satellite technology to produce a better picture and TiVo technology to let users control their viewing. It is still developing platforms with AOLTV and Ultimate TV.
In Britain, the most successful interactive TV provider so far has been British Sky Broadcasting, with its majority-owned Open service. About 60 percent of Sky's 4.7 million digital subscribers are estimated to use Open at least once a week -- amounting to nearly 3 million regular users. The reception to Interactive TV has been much warmer in England than the rest of the world. 23 percent of households in England are expected to use some form of interactive TV this year, according to Jupiter MMXI, a research firm, compared to 9 percent in the rest of Europe and 7.5 percent in the US.
Contd..... Scenario Today.
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