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Finance Article | Real Options Valuation for Risky Projects

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Real Options Valuation for Risky Projects

- by Jyoti Singh *

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Financial analysts handle the options analysis concerning market risks. It first identifies comparable assets that can be used to benchmark the flexibility represented by the options available. It then assembles data on these assets and calculates their volatility. Finally, it uses options analysis to develop the risk neutral probabilities of the prospective cash flows.

Engineers handle the decision analysis concerning project risks. The data on estimated project risk is assembled by using project risks from comparable developments. It then uses decision analysis to obtain the value of the proposed investment in a new project or product.

Details of Hybrid Real Options Valuation Method

The overall valuation method consists of the usual three elements: -

  • Set up,

  • Analysis, and

  • Examination of the sensitivity of the results to the assumptions made

    Set Up Phase: Definition of the Scope of Assessment

    The number of different uses of project and the range of uncertainties to be considered is identified. Defining the nature of the flexibility and the available options for real projects is more difficult than it is for financial options, whose flexibility is specified upfront by a contract. Research programs, new production facilities and product platforms can each lead to many different kinds of final developments, and are certainly neither limited nor specified by contract.

    The managerial decision points in the development process are also important for proper valuation of the project. Managerial reviews embody the flexibility in the investment, the opportunity to abandon or modify a project. Specifically, the valuation process must identify the opportunities to change the development of a project.

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    * Contributed by -
    Jyoti Singh,
    PGDBM 2006,
    IMT, Ghaziabad.


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