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Corporate Strategy | "Conflict in the Mideast: Four Oil Supply Scenarios"

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Conflict in the Mideast: Four Oil Supply Scenarios

- by David Wyss *

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Page - 7

Scenario 3: The Gulf Goes Dry
Percent change 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  Real GDP 4.5    3.5    2.7    (1.6)    4.0   
  Consumer Spending 3.7    3.5   2.0    (2.5)   2.7   
  CPI 1.8    2.2    2.6   4.2    4.1  
  Core CPI 1.8    2.2    2.6   3.4    3.4  
  Exchange rate with
  major trade partners 		(8.3)    (1.8)    (3.2)    (8.7)    (6.3)   
  Level               
  Oil price (WTI) ($/barrel) 41.0   56.6    91.7   238.2   106.9  
  Unemployment rate (%) 5.5    5.1    4.9    6.7   7.0   
  S&P 500 Common
  Stock Index 		1133nbsp;  1207    1218   793   965  
  Current account balance
  (Bil. $) 		(661.1)   (791.5)   (891.4)   (765.8)   (810.8)  
  Household saving rate
   (%) 		1.1    (0.5)    (1.1)    (0.9)   2.8  
  Housing starts
  (millions) 		2.0    2.1    1.9   1.3   1.4   
  Unit sales-light vehicles
  (millions) 		16.7    16.9    14.6    10.9    13.2   
  Unified federal budget
  surplus(fiscal year)
  (Bil. $)		 (412.4)   (313.2)   (299.5)   (377.2)   (648.2)  

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* David Wyss is Chief Economist with Standard & Poor's, New York.
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