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Corporate Strategy | "Conflict in the Mideast: Four Oil Supply Scenarios"

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Conflict in the Mideast: Four Oil Supply Scenarios

- by David Wyss *

Previous

Page - 8

Scenario 4: The U.S. Gets Cut Off
Percent change 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  Real GDP 4.5    3.5    3.1    (1.5)    3.1   
  Consumer Spending 3.7    3.5   2.8    (1.1)   2.2   
  CPI 2.7    3.4    3.7   3.2    2.1  
  Core CPI 1.8    2.2    2.6   3.3   3.0  
  Exchange rate with
  major trade partners
(8.3)    (1.8)    (3.2)    (8.9)    (9.3)   
  Level               
  Oil price (WTI) ($/barrel) 41.0   56.6    75.4   75.3   62.3  
  Unemployment rate (%) 5.5    5.1    4.7    5.3   5.4   
  S&P 500 Common
  Stock Index
1133   1207   1248   1118   1358  
  Current account balance
  (Bil. $)
(661.1)   (791.5)   (924.3)   (934.5)   (834.2)  
  Household saving rate (%) 1.1    (0.5)    (1.5)    (0.4)   0.8  
  Housing starts
  (millions)
2.0    2.1    1.9   1.6   1.7  
  Unit sales-light vehicles
  (millions)
16.7    16.9    16.4   15.5   15.9   
  Unified federal budget
  surplus(fiscal year) (Bil. $)
(412.4)   (313.2)   (292.4)   (347.6)   (427.2)  


Analytic services provided by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services (Ratings Services) are the result of separate activities designed to preserve the independence and objectivity of ratings opinions. The credit ratings and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or make any other investment decisions. Accordingly, any user of the information contained herein should not rely on any credit rating or other opinion contained herein in making any investment decision. Ratings are basedon information received by Ratings Services. Other divisions of Standard & Poor's may have information that is not availableto Ratings Services. Standard & Poor's has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of non-public information received during the ratings process.

Ratings Services receives compensation for its ratings. Such compensation is normally paid either by the issuers of such securities or third parties participating in marketing the securities. While Standard & Poor's reserves the right to disseminate the rating, it receives no payment for doing so, except for subscriptions to its publications. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.

Concluded.


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* David Wyss is Chief Economist with Standard & Poor's, New York.

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